Once again, it looks as if the National Presidential Race is not the same one that is going on in Iowa.
The leading Democratic candidate in the national polls is Hillary Clinton. The leading Democratic candidate in Iowa is Senator John Edwards with a 5 point lead over Clinton, and an 11 point lead over Barack Obama.
In Republican race, Rudolph Giuliani is the leading national polls candidate. However, it is Mitt Romney who has an 11 point lead over Fred Thompson (not an official candidate) in the Iowa race.
Remember back in 2004 when national polls leader Howard Dean ended up losing the Iowa Caucus? Needless, to say, Dean is not the President now, and he never even made the final ticket.
So with Clinton and Barack Obama surrendering sizeable leads in Iowa, they have to be very concerned about their actual chances of winning the election. Especially since these latest Iowa poll results come following the CNN YouTube debate, and so many analyst find that the new poll results are a result of John Edwards outperforming them in the debate. Edwards would say that the reason for his Iowa dominance is due to his counterparts attacking one another instead of attacking the issues. Whatever it is, it’s working. And while Hillary Clinton should be concerned about the possibility of losing Iowa, I’m sure she recalls when her husband lost the influential caucus, but went on to win New Hampshire in route to winning the Democratic nomination.
Giuliani’s fall in Iowa is much harder to explain and break down. Afterall, there has been no recent news to suggest that anyone would have any reason to change their vote. But for whatever reason, Romney has gained a considerable lead in the Iowa polls, and it certainly puts him out there as a serious threat to win the Democratic nomination…but as Mormon?
I say that with no personal prejudice, but just to present the true national sentiment. And it’s not like I’m the first one to say this. This is not the elephant in the room. This nation has over 80% of its people affiliated with the Christian faith, and for them to vote for a Mormon would be 100% surprising. But nonetheless, Romney is leading Iowa. And if he can make a move in Evangelical Christian based South Carolina, then his Iowa win will truly be crippling to Giuliani’s campaign.
The national landscape could be completely changed if Edwards and Romney win Iowa. With New Hampshire soon to follow those caucuses, it could start a stream of momentum that ends the dominance of Hillary Clinton and the smooth rise to the top Giuliani has experienced.
With all that said though, can the rest of the nation truly be persuaded by a state that is far removed from both the Megalopolis of the East Coast, the huge South Western region and the Pacific Coast? As a political analyst, the answer is possibly. As an individual with a real opinion, it’s only Iowa.