In our PossessionPoints.com newsletter this week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were crowned the Lucky Dog of the Week. How does a team get such a distinction? The Lucky Dog is the team who earns the fewest offensive PossessionPoints but still manages to win the game.
PossessionPoints is a blended stat that takes into account factors such as the time of a scoring drive, the points scored and the quarter in which the points were scored. The stat is a unique way to measure the performance of team’s offense and defense plus the momentum of the game. PossessionPoints translates the stats into green, yellow and red graphic indicators: green is good, yellow is so-so and red means your team is in a heck of a lot of trouble. With that said, let’s see why the Bucs won Lucky Dog of the Week.
The Bucs posted only 37 offensive PossessionPoints while the Tennessee Titans earned 98. Since the Bucs earned 37 offensive PossessionPoints, the Titans posted 37 Defensive PossessionPoints.(number of offensive PossessionPoints allowed by a defense ). The Titans’ net result of offense minus defense was 61 (98 offensive minus 37 Defensive) We call this the Net Effect Indicator. Why is this number important? Once a team enters into the green net indicator zone which the Titans did with their 61, it has a better than 90 percent chance of walking off with a victory.
Yesterday, the Bucs were an anomaly. The Titans had a green net of 61. They should have won, but the Bucs posted the “W”. Were other factors at play? Well, the loss of Vince Young in the third quarter to an injury certainly affected the Titans’ team, but sometimes it is just stinking luck or the will of a warrior like Jeff Garcia. This was a week where the oldies but goodies got a chance to shine (Garcia, Testaverde, Collins). In plain speak, the Bucs really did nothing spectacular to win. Their three scoring drives consumed less than seven minutes of the clock. Two of those scoring drives resulted only in field goals. The one and only touchdown drive lasted just one minute and 30 seconds. In PossessionPoints World, these are not the numbers of winners. Anyway, the game win came down to the final seconds, and a Tampa Bay Field Goal sealed the deal. The Bucs won 13-10.
Every year, there are barely a handful of anomalies to the Green Net Indicator rule, and we love to highlight them. I don’t know why because it makes our picks look bad, but these anomalies show off the excitement that only the NFL offers. So, we bow our heads in humility and say “Congratulations” to the Bucs and “Better luck next time” to the Titans.
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